Oil Market Weekly Recap: OPEC+ Debate and Weak Data Sink Crude
Crude oil futures ended the week under heavy pressure as traders priced in a potential OPEC+ supply boost alongside softer U.S. economic data and rising inventories. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $61.87, down more than 3% on the week, and importantly, finished on the weak side of the 52-week moving average at $63.40. This breakdown leaves $61.12 as the next key support level on the weekly chart.
OPEC+ Considers Accelerating Supply Increases
The primary driver was mounting expectation that OPEC+ will vote to restore an additional 1.65 million barrels per day of production at its September 7 meeting. This increase—roughly 1.6% of global demand—would unwind a second layer of cuts much earlier than planned, following the 2.2 million bpd increase already phased in this year. Analysts view the move as a clear signal that producers, particularly in the Middle East, are prioritizing market share over price stability. Traders responded by marking prices lower ahead of the weekend meeting.
U.S. Inventories Surprise to the Upside
Bearish pressure intensified after the EIA reported a 2.4 million barrel build in crude inventories, defying expectations for a draw. Refinery maintenance and narrower margins suggest throughput could soften further into September. Combined with U.S. production holding steady at record highs above 13.5 million barrels per day, the inventory data reinforced the perception that the supply side of the market is well covered, undermining any bullish narrative around tightness.
Oil Prices Forecast: Bearish Into Next Week
With WTI closing below the 52-week moving average at $63.40 and pressing against support at $61.12, the outlook for the week ahead is bearish. Unless OPEC+ surprises the market by holding production steady, additional barrels will likely weigh further on sentiment. A decisive break below $61.12 would expose the $56.09 level, while resistance at $66.03 caps the upside. Rallies are expected to attract selling interest until fundamentals shift in a more supportive direction.
