The market is in a classic waiting mode, with the FOMC meeting and key inflation and GDP data ahead. In such conditions, trading activity typically declines, while price movements become choppier and less predictable. This makes it especially important to focus on higher timeframes and trade based only on confirmed structure rather than emotions.
GBP/USD
The overall bias for the pound remains bullish: the uptrend on both weekly and daily charts is still intact. However, after the strong rally of recent weeks, the market appears exhausted. There are early signs of a possible correction—especially if buyers fail to quickly break above recent highs.
The pair is currently trading around 1.3500. This is a key zone where either a new upward impulse may begin or a deeper pullback could develop. Buying impulsively at this level is risky. It’s better to wait either for a confirmed breakout with follow-through or for a healthy correction to find a more favorable entry point.
The base scenario for the pound remains positive, but in the coming days a wide range or a mild correction before the next move is the more likely outcome.
USD/CHF
The situation for the Swiss franc is the opposite. The broader trend remains bearish, but after a prolonged decline in the dollar, sharp corrective rebounds often occur.
The pair is currently trading near 0.7900. The daily chart has already shown signs of a downward reversal within a larger structure, but on the hourly timeframe there is still room for a short-term dollar recovery.
The primary bias remains to the downside, but in the short term a quick rebound cannot be ruled out, driven by short covering and news flow.
USD/JPY
This pair looks like the strongest—and the most “dangerous” for countertrend trades. A large bullish structure has formed on the weekly chart, while the 159.5–160.0 area remains a key zone of attention.
As long as the structure remains intact, attempts to sell against the trend carry high risk. The preference remains for buying on pullbacks. It’s better to respect the current trend rather than try to call a premature reversal.
What this means in practice
Across the three major pairs, the picture is as follows:
- The pound remains strong but needs a pause or correction;
- The franc may allow the dollar a short but sharp rebound;
- The yen continues to support the broader dollar uptrend.
Against the backdrop of the upcoming FOMC meeting and key macro data, the market is more likely to invalidate intraday setups than to follow through cleanly. Therefore, the main priorities today are discipline, risk control, and trading only confirmed signals with tight stops.
As for which scenario will play out, stay tuned and follow developments with us in real time.
