AUDUSD has been on the sidelines over the last two weeks as the 0.6975 resistance and the 0.6800 handle seem to be a real struggle for traders. Technically, the price could lose some ground in the short-term as the RSI is flattening below 50, while the MACD is flirting with its trigger and zero lines.
A pullback on bearish cross within the 20- and 40-period simple moving averages (SMAs) and the lower surface of the Ichimoku cloud could keep the pair beneath the 0.6900 mark, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from 0.6378 to 0.7065, sending the price for a retest of the 0.6800 level. Below this line, the 50.0% Fibonacci of 0.6720 could come into focus ahead of the 0.6685 support, shifting the neutral bias to bearish.
Alternatively, a jump above 0.6900 could meet the 0.6975 resistance. Exiting the channel, the 0.7040 hurdle and the 14-month peak of 0.7065 could take control.
In the medium-term picture, AUDUSD is gently pointing up over the past four months, framing a positive profile. A strong rally above 0.7065 would extend the upward pattern off 0.6378, making the outlook even more bullish, while a decisive close below 0.6800 would confirm the start of a downtrend.
In brief, AUDUSD could lose further steam in the short term, while in the medium-term the pair continues to hold a positive outlook.
Origin: XM
