Break Above Swing High and 50-Day Average
Crude oil extended higher on Tuesday, reaching $66.52 before pausing. The advance showed strength as price exceeded the prior swing high of $65.77 while also breaking above the anchored VWAP at $65.48. The 50-Day moving average at $66.15 and a key downtrend line were also surpassed intraday, both bullish developments. While crude may not close firmly above the 50-Day average, holding the breakout above the trendline signals improving momentum and raises the probability of testing higher levels. A confirmed daily close above $65.77 would validate the breakout and further strengthen the short-term bullish case.
Targets from VWAP and ABCD Projection
Two technical measures align near $67.16, creating a key area to monitor. First, an anchored VWAP level from the January swing high falls around that price. Second, a 100% measured move projection for a rising ABCD pattern also targets $67.16. Together, these levels provide a natural upside reference. A decisive daily close above the 50-Day average would further open the door toward the 200-Day moving average, now at $67.78. The long-term average coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $67.84, reinforcing this price zone as potentially significant resistance.
Bullish Wedge Breakout Signal
The intraday move above the trendline also represents the first bullish signal for a breakout of a falling wedge pattern. The upper boundary of this wedge has now been breached, with the lower boundary tied to the recent swing low of $62.19. If the breakout is confirmed with continued strength, it suggests potential pattern-based targets at $71.33, marking a prior lower swing high, and at $78.44, which is the origin of the wedge. While these levels are not guaranteed, the wedge structure highlights the possibility of sustained upside momentum should key resistance levels be overcome.
