OPEC+ Policy Uncertainty Keeps Markets on Edge
OPEC+ faces a critical decision in April as it weighs whether to increase production. The group is struggling to interpret shifting supply and demand trends, leading to speculation that it may delay scheduled output hikes to support prices.
Technically, crude remains range-bound, but OPEC+’s decision could spark a directional move. Seasonal factors, such as rising gasoline and diesel demand ahead of Easter, could provide some short-term relief. The market is facing weekly headwinds at $70.78 and $71.30. Support is $69.53. If this fails, prices could plunge over the near-term to $64.75.
Geopolitical Risks Offer Mixed Signals
Trump’s revocation of Chevron’s Venezuela license has temporarily boosted supply concerns, sparking a brief 2% rally. Additionally, discussions around U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) purchases could offer a temporary floor for prices if the government moves to replenish reserves.
However, bearish pressures persist as traders watch for potential increases in Russian and Iranian exports. If geopolitical conditions stabilize, these flows could further weigh on the market.
