The market remains influenced by geopolitical risks surrounding Iran, a strong dollar, and expectations of a tighter Fed policy following the appointment of Kevin Warsh. The extension of sanction relief for Russian oil has slightly eased tensions, however, the overall backdrop remains nervous and continues to support the dollar.Condensed trading plan from ProTrader club based on the “Basic Principle” strategy
EUR/USD The current technical picture has clarified significantly after an important downside breakout.
- Weekly chart: The breakdown below 1.16543 completed a four-week consolidation and formed a local reversal structure to the downside.
- Daily chart: The downside breakout confirmed the formation of a full-fledged reversal structure. The pair has entered the implementation phase of a bearish scenario.
- Hourly chart: Buying is only possible on a breakout of key resistance with a recovery target. Selling remains the primary priority on structural pullbacks to resistance levels. The main direction of movement is downward.
GBP/USD The pound is confidently developing downward movement. A reversal candlestick pattern is playing out on the weekly chart, while a downside structure with acceleration is forming on the daily timeframe. Despite the risk of sharp sporadic upward bounces, the overall bias remains bearish. Short selling on pullbacks is preferred.
USD/JPY The pair maintains a strong bullish structure on higher timeframes. After the correction completes, priority is given to buying in the direction of the main uptrend. The pair looks like one of the most promising for continued growth.
USD/CHF The Swiss franc continues the overall downtrend, however, signs of slowing decline and preparation for a corrective dollar rally have appeared. The pair is currently in an accumulation phase; potential dollar buys upon emergence of upward reversal signals look most interesting.
Overall priority for today Today, dollar dominance is clearly visible in the market. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have entered a bearish phase after breaking key levels, so primary attention should be focused on selling on pullbacks.
USD/JPY remains the strongest bullish pair among majors — priority for long positions is maintained within the long-term uptrend structure.
USD/CHF is in an intermediate phase. We are closely monitoring signs of a reversal and preparing for potential corrective dollar buys against the franc.
We primarily trade in the direction of the main trend for EUR/USD and GBP/USD (selling) and with the trend for USD/JPY (buying). Counter-trend positions should be avoided without clear reversal signals. Volatility may be elevated today due to the geopolitical backdrop, so it is especially important to adhere to stated stop-losses and maintain a reasonable risk/reward ratio.
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