GBPUSD has been developing an upward structure in the four-hour chart since the end of September, recently unlocking a two-month high of 1.3311 near a key upward-sloping line, which has been curbing both upside and downside corrections from April onwards.
The price has decelerated thereafter but the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) managed to catch the fall around 1.3128 earlier this week, giving another chance to the bulls. With the Stochastics exiting the oversold area and the price having deviated above the lower Bollinger band, there is some optimism that buying appetite may return in the short run.
However, the negative MACD keeps warranting some caution as the pair is trading near the 1.3160-1.3200 resistance zone. A break above that border, which also includes the 20-period SMA could brush away this warning and send the pair probably up to the 1.3300 level and near the crucial restrictive line.
Otherwise, a drop beneath the 50-period SMA may stall near the 38.2% Fibonacci of the 1.2674 – 1.3311 upleg at 1.3068, a break of which is requested for an extension towards the 200-period SMA and the 50% Fibonacci of 1.2993. Lower, the next Fibonacci level of 1.2917 could be another key barrier, though the cluster of lows around 1.2858 would be the main target and lead to a transition to the bearish side if violated.
In brief, GBPUSD may face upside pressures in the near term, though any bullish attempt may prove to be short-lived if the bulls fail to pass the 1.3160 – 1.3200 boundary.
Origin: XM
