EURUSD is opening the new week of July in good balance. The current quotations are 1.1220. Today is going to be a quiet day on the exchange market. The macroeconomic calendar is empty, and Monday has all chance to remain calm. However, some news from abroad is worth considering: the world trade wars may soon take a new step, because the US are now planning to bring Vietnam under their control. I was June when the US President Donald Trump first said that Vietnam is abusing the situation, sometimes behaving worse than China. Clearly, he was speaking about its trading behaviour. After the situation with the Chinese export to the USA became complicated, Vietnam developed a robust activity and increased the volume of export to the US. The export is said to have grown to 8% GDP, which is truly a lot. Naturally, Trump does not like it. As early as May Vietnam appeared on the list of countries – currency manipulators, and now it is prone to get increased taxation on its goods.
The start is the same as with China: in July the US put a tax on the Vietnamese steel as high as 400%. Such conditions are absolutely noncompetitive, so the volume of the Vietnamese steel dropped significantly. With other goods it is more or less the same. The tax for Vietnamese goods may amount to 25%, as with China, which will deteriorate the export greatly and influence the GDP of the country. For the exchange market such steps will show not just deepening, but also widening of trade wars, so that the next goal of American trade protection may become any country of the world. In such circumstances demand for safe currencies, such as the dollar and yen, usually grows