EURUSD maintains a neutral bias in the short-term, as the pair continues to trade between 1.1100 and 1.1300. In recent days, there has been some downward momentum following the failure to break above major resistance at 1.1300 after prices came very close to this level on June 14. There was a subsequent fall below 1.1200. This support-turned-resistance level is also close to the tenkan-sen line, making it an important resistance area.
Momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD are showing a downside bias as both indicators are falling. However, momentum is not that strong and the RSI has stalled its decline and remains close to the 50-point level.
A move by EURUSD below the May 30 low at 1.1108 would trigger a downside move to target 1.1056, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.0820 to 1.1295 (April 24 to June 14). Falling below this level would strengthen the downside bias. Only a break above 1.1182 (23.6% Fibonacci) and above the key 1.1200 level would relieve any downside pressure.
The short-term trend is expected to remain neutral unless prices break out of the range, either above 1.1300 or below 1.1100 in order to give a clearer direction going forward. Looking at the bigger picture, the uptrend that started from the January 3 low at 1.0340 to the June 14 high of 1.1295 is still intact. Trend indicators are giving a bullish market structure, as prices are above the daily Ichimoku cloud and there was a bullish crossover of the 50-day moving average with the 200-day MA. Meanwhile, the 50-day MA is still rising.
Origin: XM
