Fragile Equilibrium
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased somewhat, but investors are in no hurry to return to risky assets. The US dollar remains the clear beneficiary, ending the month with its best performance in nearly a year and holding near multi-month highs.
The market is gradually resetting expectations for US monetary policy. Following the June FRS meeting, investors have virtually abandoned the scenario of imminent policy easing and are once again discussing the likelihood of maintaining high rates for a longer period. This week, attention will focus on US labor market data, which could determine the dollar’s further direction in July.
EUR/USD: Downtrend Retains Full Control
On the weekly chart, the breakdown of key reference points has finally confirmed the formation of a global reversal structure to the downside. The first medium-term downside target remains around 1.12078.
On the daily timeframe, a stable downtrend structure persists. Following a strong downward impulse, the market is naturally attempting to form a corrective pullback, but so far it looks precisely like a correction within a larger bearish move.
On the hourly chart, the pair continues moving within a corrective uptrend. The upper boundary of the selling zone is located around 1.14800. The main trading scenario remains working from sales after the completion of the corrective rise. Additional trading signals, operational level adjustments, and expert commentary on the current market situation — all in the original material on Telegram and in club reviews. An additional signal will appear on a breakdown below 1.13535. In this case, the target will again be a move below the recent lows.
The fundamental picture also remains unfavorable for the single currency. The market continues to price in higher rates in the US, while expectations for new policy tightening from the European Central Bank have noticeably decreased, limiting the euro’s recovery potential even during local corrections.
GBP/USD: Pound Looks Vulnerable, but Market May Offer Another Correction
Signs of a medium-term reversal downward continue to form. On the weekly chart, the lack of a confident bounce from key support indicates a slowdown in the uptrend and increases the probability of developing a full-fledged decline. The daily timeframe confirms this scenario: after several months of accumulation, the market has broken down from a large consolidation and formed a local reversal structure.
At the same time, the probability of corrective growth remains high. If the market decides to test higher levels, this could become a good opportunity to look for new sales.
On the hourly chart, the key signal for resuming the decline will be a breakdown below 1.31791. In this case, the first target will be an update of the nearest lows.
Fundamentally, the pound also remains under pressure. The UK economy is showing signs of slowing, and the dollar’s strength continues to worsen the position of most European currencies.
USD/CHF: Dollar vs Franc Retains Strong Bullish Momentum
The large-scale corrective strengthening of the US currency continues to develop. On the weekly chart, the breakout of a key support point has confirmed the dollar’s growth scenario against the franc.
On the daily chart, the first growth target was previously reached, but room for continued upward movement still remains. The next reference points are higher levels in the area of new local highs.
On the hourly timeframe, the priority remains exclusively with purchases. Any structural decline is currently viewed only as a correction, after which the market may receive a new upward impulse.
The dollar’s strength is supported by rising US bond yields and changing expectations for FRS interest rates. This factor is currently playing a key role for the pair.
USD/JPY: Yen Remains Under Pressure
On the weekly chart, a large-scale reversal structure upward persists, with the main target remaining a move above the 162 level.
The daily chart also fully supports the scenario for further US currency growth. After completing the previous correction, the market is once again showing readiness to continue moving upward.
On the hourly chart, a new buy signal has appeared following the formation of a full corrective structure. However, the factor of possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities still requires caution.
The interest rate differential between the US and Japan remains too large to speak of forming a sustainable downward reversal of the pair. Therefore, the strategic priority remains with dollar purchases.
Conclusions
The last week of June is taking place under the sign of a strong dollar. The market continues to revise expectations for FRS rates, and demand for safe-haven assets is supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
From a technical perspective, the main idea remains the same. The euro and pound retain downward potential after completing current corrections. The dollar against the franc and yen continues to look significantly stronger than most world currencies.
The key event of the coming days will be the block of US labor market statistics. It is precisely this that can determine whether the dollar will receive a new growth impulse in early July or whether markets will finally see a deeper correction of the US currency.
