Following a series of strong US macroeconomic releases, market participants have significantly revised expectations toward delaying Fed rate cuts, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to hold near multi-week highs. In parallel, elevated demand for safe-haven assets persists amid geopolitical uncertainty and commodity market instability. Under these conditions, major currencies continue to move against the dollar within corrective waves, while the medium-term trend remains in favor of the US currency.
EUR/USD
Downtrend Persists, but Correction Deepens
On the weekly chart, the formation of a large-scale downward reversal structure was previously confirmed after breaking through key support levels. This definitively cemented the scenario for medium-term euro weakness and provided a full sell signal.
The daily timeframe maintains a confidently bearish configuration. Nevertheless, after a series of intense sell-offs, the market is gradually transitioning into a corrective recovery phase. Current trading ideas, real-time level adjustments, and expert commentary on the current situation are available in the original material on the Telegram channel and club reviews. Such pullbacks after impulsive declines are a natural component of trending movement and are typically used by traders to find new entry points for selling.
On the hourly chart, an upward correction is developing within the overall downtrend. Price is approaching a resistance zone where seller interest is concentrated. A corrective three-wave structure is forming, upon completion of which the market may switch back to declining.
The priority remains unchanged—selling after the completion of corrective growth and the appearance of confirming downward reversal signals. The first medium-term downside target is located around 1.1208.
GBP/USD
Pound Losing Momentum, Preparing for Further Decline
On higher timeframes, the British currency is showing signs of slowing upward momentum. The recent test of key support did not generate strong buyer interest, which has significantly increased the probability of a full downward reversal forming.
The daily chart maintains a bearish configuration after price exited multi-month consolidation. The market is now developing according to a corrective pullback scenario, which could potentially evolve into a retest of the previously broken accumulation zone.
On the hourly timeframe, local recovery persists, however, all current dynamics still appear as merely a correction within a larger downward movement. In the event of a reversal structure forming, priority will shift back toward selling.
The pound remains vulnerable for now, and any corrective rallies are primarily viewed as opportunities to find new entry points for short positions.
USD/CHF
Dollar Preparing for New Wave of Growth Against Franc
On higher timeframes, despite the pair’s long-term weakness, signs of a large-scale corrective strengthening of the US currency have emerged. The recent breakout of important reference points has substantially improved the technical picture for the dollar.
The daily chart demonstrates confident upward movement. However, after rapid growth, the market is beginning to need a deeper correction, which will allow new entry points to form in the direction of the main movement.
On the hourly chart, the first attempt to continue growth proved unsuccessful, increasing the probability of a more prolonged corrective decline. Nevertheless, the overall priority remains unchanged—seeking opportunities for buying after the correction completes and a reversal structure appears.
Selling the pair still appears premature, as the technical picture continues to favor dollar strengthening.
USD/JPY
Yen Again Ceding Initiative to Dollar
The pair’s long-term uptrend remains one of the strongest in the currency market. Sellers’ attempt to halt the growth again proved unsuccessful, and the market continues to hold near multi-year highs.
On the daily chart, the structure remains fully bullish. Corrections remain limited in nature and do not change the overall picture in favor of the dollar.
For the first time in a long while, a full technical construction has formed on the hourly timeframe that allows for continued growth. At the same time, the main risk for buyers remains the probability of new currency intervention by Japanese authorities, which could lead to sharp and short-term movements.
Despite this risk, the strategic priority for the pair remains the same—buying and trading in the direction of the global uptrend.
Summary
The end of the week is marked by a strong dollar. The euro and pound remain in a corrective recovery phase within larger downward structures, the franc continues to lose ground against the US currency, and the yen again shows signs of readiness to update highs.
As long as Fed rate expectations remain high and demand for safe-haven assets persists, the advantage in the currency market continues to lie with the US dollar.
All signals are valid only at the time of publication. Market conditions may change during the day. Which trading plan scenario will be realized, full detailed analysis, level updates, and real-time ideas—follow the events with us on Telegram and in the club reviews.
