The US dollar enters the second half of the week with undisputed leadership. A synergy of positive US macroeconomic data, rising expectations for tighter Fed monetary policy, and lingering geopolitical uncertainty has restored demand for the US currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has broken above the 101.5 mark, hitting more-than-one-year highs and posting its best monthly gain since early spring. Market participants are actively reassessing rate scenarios: robust business activity data demonstrates the resilience of the US economy, depriving the Fed of any arguments for early policy easing.
An additional driver for the dollar is the “risk-off” regime. Despite some easing of rhetoric surrounding Iran and the normalization of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical premium has not disappeared. Any new news regarding Iran’s nuclear program or inspection conditions could instantly bring high volatility back to commodity and currency markets. Against this backdrop, the oil market remains under significant pressure. Brent crude has dropped to the $76 per barrel mark, hitting four-month lows on expectations of increased regional supply and a full recovery of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. For commodity currencies and European assets, this dynamic acts as an additional negative factor.
Excellent June PMI data has added particular strength to the dollar. The composite index rose to 52.2 points, the manufacturing sector is showing its highest growth rates in years, and the services sector continues to expand confidently. The market has once again started pricing in a more prolonged period of high interest rates in the US.
Condensed Trading Plan Based on the “Core Principle” Strategy for 24.06.26
EUR/USD Confirmation of the Downward Reversal
One of the most powerful technical signals of recent weeks is now playing out. The breakout of the 1.14101 mark on the weekly timeframe has formed a global downward reversal structure, and the consolidation below 1.13930 confirmed the break of the support level, giving a formal sell signal. On the daily chart, a sustained downward dynamic has formed following the breach of the 1.14101 and 1.13910 levels. Current trading ideas, real-time level adjustments, and expert commentary on the current situation are available in the original material on the Telegram channel and club reviews. Pressure from the strong dollar and the divergence in monetary policies between the Fed and the ECB only reinforce this bearish scenario. The first medium-term downside target is located in the 1.12078 zone. On the hourly chart, priority is given to selling on pullbacks. The key resistance zone is located near 1.14800, where there is a high probability of a new wave of supply forming.
GBP/USD The Pound Is Losing Stability
Clear signs of weakness are emerging after a prolonged sideways phase. Previous attempts at a rally failed to gain buyer support, indicating fading bullish momentum and a deteriorating balance of supply and demand. From a technical standpoint, the market is transitioning from uncertainty to a phase of potential downward reversal. Additional pressure is exerted by the strong dollar factor and the divergence in rate expectations between the UK and the US. In the short term, the focus is shifting to the market’s reaction to pullbacks: any recovery attempts are increasingly viewed by traders not as the start of a new uptrend, but as a convenient entry point to resume selling.
USD/CHF The Dollar Gains Ground in the Pair
A gradual strengthening of the US currency is being recorded after a prolonged period of pressure. The market is showing signs of a transition from a downward structure to a corrective recovery of the dollar. The key driver is the overall strengthening of the USD against the backdrop of expectations for a more prolonged period of tight Fed policy. This reduces the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven currencies (including the franc) and supports demand for the dollar even amid global uncertainty. While the scenario currently looks like a correction within a broader trend, the structure of the movement suggests that the probability of a more sustained dollar recovery is increasing if the current macroeconomic backdrop persists.
USD/JPY Dollar Dominance Over the Yen
The pair remains one of the strongest instruments in the dollar basket, reflecting the fundamental imbalance between the policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The US currency enjoys sustained demand thanks to the yield differential and expectations of a prolonged period of high rates in the US. The yen, in turn, is under pressure from structural factors: the ultra-loose policy of the Japanese central bank and high sensitivity to global risk appetite. The technical picture confirms the continuation of the uptrend. Nevertheless, periodic sharp corrections cannot be ruled out due to the risk of currency interventions by the Japanese authorities, which could temporarily increase volatility without changing the overall direction of the movement.
Bottom Line The currency market continues to adapt to the realities of a strong dollar. As long as the DXY index holds above the 101 mark, pressure on the euro, pound, and commodity currencies will persist. Investors’ focus remains on the upcoming US inflation releases and further comments from Fed officials, which will set the direction for currency markets through the end of June. Which scenario of the trading plan will be realized, full detailed analysis, level updates, and real-time ideas — follow the events with us on Telegram and in the club reviews.
