Rising commodity prices, the main reasons for which are the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and other drone attacks on oil storage facilities, automatically increases inflationary expectations in many economies. For example, in Australia, consumer inflation expectations have already risen to their highest in several years. Such dynamics may complicate central banks’ plans to ease monetary policy.
At the same time, structural changes in the financial markets are continuing. The volume of tokenized assets in the global financial system has exceeded $22 billion, updating the historical maximum. Major investment companies, including BlackRock, call tokenization one of the key technological trends that can change the financial infrastructure in the coming years.
Together, these factors create a complex and contradictory environment for the foreign exchange market. Geopolitical risks are supporting demand for defensive assets and the dollar, while rising inflation expectations may keep interest rates at elevated levels for longer than investors expected. As a result, the coming weeks may be marked by increased volatility, especially if geopolitical news continues to have a direct impact on commodity and energy markets.
EURUSD
Weekly
After breaking through last year’s high, the euro has been moving in an accelerating uptrend for some time. However, then the structure changed. The price reached the second reduction target, and the breakdown of important lows confirmed the development of the correction. The opening of the week with a price gap reinforced the signal for continued decline. Now the market is approaching the last key zone, where theoretically a more serious reversal attempt may form.
Daily
The corrective movement that began at the end of January has become more complex and lengthy. The upward structure has actually been destroyed, and the market has formed a downward reversal pattern.
Nevertheless, there remains the possibility of a sharp technical pullback upward. In the past, there were unclosed price zones in this area, and the market may try to test them before continuing the movement.
Hourly chart
The intraday dynamics remains predominantly downward. The main idea is to look for sales after corrective rises. There is no clear trading structure yet, so the market may move in consolidation mode for some time.
Weekly
After updating the previous high, the British currency turned down. The first correction goal has already been achieved, and now the market is gradually moving towards the next support zone.The pound is also sensitive to global risks. The strengthening of the dollar and rising geopolitical tensions are increasing pressure on the British currency.
Daily
The breakdown of key levels confirmed the formation of a reversal pattern. The market has emerged from an uptrend, and the current dynamics are more like the beginning of a medium-term correction.
Hourly
In the short term, sales remain a priority. The intraday growth so far looks like a technical pullback within the framework of a downward movement. The new trading structure has not yet been formed.
USDCHF
Weekly
Despite the overall strength of the dollar, the pair has been in a downward movement for a long time. The breakdown of key levels confirmed the development of this trend. However, the nature of the fall in recent weeks shows that the market is gradually approaching the zone of possible strong corrective growth of the dollar. There are still unclosed price gaps on top, which can attract the price.
Daily
A correctional structure has been formed that can become the basis for technical recovery. The immediate goal of such a move is to return to a higher resistance zone.
Hourly
During the day, the market is balancing between growth attempts and selling pressure. Both short-term purchases are possible with the formation of reversal signals, and continued decline with increased demand for the franc as a defensive asset.
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The foreign exchange market is in a phase of increased uncertainty. Geopolitics supports demand for the dollar, and rising oil prices increase inflationary risks and reduce the likelihood of rapid Fed policy easing. As a result, the US currency remains relatively strong, while European currencies are under pressure.
At the same time, many currency pairs are approaching important technical zones. This increases the likelihood of sudden movements in the coming days, especially if the geopolitical background or macroeconomic statistics unexpectedly change market expectations.
