Oil has stabilized slightly after the morning pullback, the geopolitical premium around the Strait of Hormuz remains intact, and the dollar holds its ground ahead of Lagarde’s rhetoric. Volatility is gradually building.Condensed Trading Plan Based on “Core Principle” Strategy for 27.05.26
EUR/USD The technical picture is developing in favor of sellers following a breakout of the key zone.
- Weekly chart: The downward breakout of 1.16543 completed a four-week consolidation and formed a local reversal structure to the downside with a first target at 1.14876.
- Daily chart: The downward breakout of 1.16543 confirmed the reversal structure with acceleration. The nearest target is the 1.15200 area.
- Hourly chart: A buy is possible on a breakout of 1.16444 with a first target at 1.16600. A sell on a breakout of 1.15876 with a first target at 1.15327.
GBP/USD The pair is in a complex phase with conflicting signals. Higher timeframes still hold upside potential toward new highs, yet a downward reversal structure is actively forming simultaneously.
- Weekly chart: The gap-up opening increases the likelihood of testing new highs, although downside targets were not fully achieved.
- Daily chart: A downward reversal structure is developing with a breakout of key reference levels and acceleration. The risk of a sporadic sharp rally remains elevated. A local support zone for sells is present.
- Hourly chart: Both buys and sells are possible on breakouts of nearby levels with clear targets.
USD/CHF Continues to follow the overall downtrend, but signs of deceleration are becoming increasingly noticeable. This creates conditions for a potential large-scale corrective rally in the dollar.
- Weekly chart: The downtrend persists without clear signs of an upside reversal, although risks of a sudden strong correction remain high.
- Daily chart: The downward reversal structure from March remains intact but is slowing down. Potential for a corrective rally is visible. An important daily support level for buys is present.
- Hourly chart: Both buys and sells are possible on breakouts of nearby levels.
USD/JPY The pair remains in a strong uptrend with high potential for continuation.
- Weekly chart: Following a breakout of key resistance, a large-scale upward reversal structure has formed.
- Daily chart: After completing a three-wave correction, a key support level has been broken. This confirms the buy signal with potential for further upside.
- Hourly chart: In wait-and-see mode. Awaiting confirmation of impulse continuation or the emergence of pullback signals.
Overall Priority for Today Today’s main driver is the ECB outcome and Lagarde’s comments. We are tracking developments in real time in the original Telegram material and club reviews. Hawkish rhetoric on inflation would support the euro in the short term and could trigger a dollar correction. A dovish tone, conversely, would strengthen the US currency and add pressure on risk assets and commodities.
Primary focus: EUR/USD. We prioritize sells in case of dovish signals from the ECB.
On oil, we trade cautiously, taking profits on bounces and avoiding aggressive buys until the Hormuz situation clarifies.
Crypto market: neutral-cautious stance, awaiting completion of the correction.
General Strategy for the Second Half of the Day Selective trading with an event-driven focus. We reduce position sizes until the ECB press conference concludes, strictly observe stop-losses and money management rules. Volatility may spike sharply after 20:00 Moscow Time.
