USDJPY:
The pair is pinned near the lower end of its recent range as safe-haven demand supports the yen, and ongoing reminders that Japan’s Ministry of Finance stands ready to act against excessive volatility discourage aggressive USD buying versus JPY. Rising global risk aversion funnels flows toward traditional havens, with the yen historically among the key beneficiaries.
The monetary picture has also shifted modestly in favor of JPY compared with previous quarters: inflation in Japan has stayed above target for much of the year, and the Bank of Japan is cautiously normalizing policy, allowing some improvement in yen real yields. Even with higher nominal rates in the US, the flow balance and positioning leave USD/JPY sensitive to intervention headlines and to deterioration in global risk appetite.
Given this, a short-term downward bias can persist: if risk-driven demand for the yen holds and US Treasury yields do not surge abruptly, the pair may slide toward 153.00. Risks to this view include a sudden improvement in global sentiment and/or stronger-than-expected US data that could revive interest in the dollar against the yen.
Trading recommendation: SELL 153.85, SL 154.55, TP 153.00
Origin: FreshForex
