Turning focus to the AUD/USD pair, Chinese economic data will take center stage following President Trump’s tariff announcement.
Economists forecast Chinese exports to rise 6% year-on-year in September (August: 4.4%) and imports to climb 1.5% (August: +1.3%).
A stronger export reading could signal rising demand for Chinese goods, which benefits Australia, given that China accounts for roughly one-third of Aussie exports. A pickup in Chinese demand could strengthen trade terms, supporting a less dovish RBA rate path.
On the other hand, a lower reading may fuel bets on an RBA rate cut in November and further policy easing in the first half of 2026.
However, US-China trade tensions may overshadow the data. On Friday, October 10, US President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese shipments. A retaliatory response from Beijing could trigger a flight-to-safety, weighing on the Aussie dollar.
Crucially, the latest trade policies will take effect on Saturday, November 1, the final day of the APEC Summit. President Trump and President Xi will meet at the APEC Summit, starting on Friday, October 31. The latest moves could be posturing ahead of the highly anticipated meeting between the two presidents.
AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Weak Chinese data, dovish RBA rhetoric, and rising trade friction may push AUD/USD toward the 200-day EMA. If breached, $0.645 would be the next key support level.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Strong Chinese data, hawkish RBA signals, and easing trade friction could send AUD/USD toward $0.655.
