EURUSD:
The euro is gaining ground as another wave of dollar selling follows disappointing U-S labour data: July non-farm payrolls rose barely a third of the consensus forecast, while weekly jobless claims climbed higher. CME Fed-funds futures now price in a 94 % probability of a rate cut at the 17 September FOMC, driving the 10-year Treasury yield below 4 % and weighing on the greenback.
Political risk adds further pressure on the dollar: the White House is reportedly preparing to replace the current Fed Chair with a “more compliant” candidate—an ominous signal for central-bank independence. At the same time, talk of an upcoming Trump–Putin meeting supports the euro by hinting at a relaxation of sanctions and improved prospects for European energy exports.
Within the euro area, the latest European Commission flash estimate showed GDP expanding by 0.3 % q/q in Q2, while annual inflation slowed to 2.7 %. The data ease recession fears yet still leave room for a cautious ECB easing path, attracting steady capital inflows into the single currency.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1655, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1710
Origin: FreshForex
