Brent crude settled at $74.23 per barrel, up 7.02%, while WTI closed at $72.98, climbing 7.62%. Intraday highs saw both benchmarks spiking over 13% and 14%, respectively, hitting levels not seen since January. The sharp rally marked the largest intraday move since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled global energy markets.
Oil prices forecast: Bullish with $100 Brent in sight
The current geopolitical escalation places a bullish floor under oil prices, with Brent potentially testing $100 if the Strait of Hormuz or regional infrastructure comes under direct threat. Traders should prepare for further volatility, particularly if retaliatory actions escalate or disrupt critical supply routes.
OPEC capacity and U.S. drilling trends add complexity to outlook
Iran, a core OPEC member, exports over 2 million bpd, with spare capacity from OPEC+ roughly equivalent. While Iranian officials reported no damage to oil infrastructure, the risk of future strikes—particularly targeting export terminals like Kharg Island—remains high. Societe Generale’s Ben Hoff noted a potential shift toward an “energy-for-energy” retaliation pattern, amplifying supply-side fears.
Meanwhile, U.S. production signals a softening trend. Baker Hughes reported a seventh consecutive weekly decline in rig counts, with oil rigs falling to 439, the lowest since October 2021. This underlines a tightening domestic supply outlook, which could compound market volatility if Middle East supply is disrupted.
