Forex analysis. The Dollar is Losing Ground: Bitcoin Surpasses 75k, Gold Rises

Last night, Bitcoin broke through the $T h e d o ll a r w e ak e n e d a g ain, an d t h e p r i ce o f g o l d rose t o$ 4,830. On Thursday morning, the dollar index stood at 97.95—as if ready to jump. Today, important data on inflation in the eurozone (CPI, 12:00 MSK), the UK GDP, and US unemployment claims are expected. The POC level for the dollar is at 98.50—this is the area with the highest volume of trades. As long as the price remains below this level, the bears hold the advantage.

Key Levels of the DXY Dollar Index for April 16

Current Price: 97.95 (the dollar is still weak)
Key Resistance: 98.20 (the first barrier for bulls)
Next Resistance: 98.50 (POC level—zone for selling)
Key Support: 97.80 (local minimum)
Next Support: 97.50 (target if 97.80 breaks)

What to Expect Today

Inflation in the Eurozone (CPI, 12:00 MSK) and UK GDP (09:00 MSK)
- If the UK GDP is weak, the pound may drop, which could temporarily support the dollar. Strong data will boost the pound and put pressure on the dollar.
- If the CPI in the eurozone exceeds expectations, the euro will rise, and the dollar will fall. If it comes in lower than expected, the euro will fall, and the dollar will strengthen.
US Statistics (15:30 MSK)
- Jobless claims (forecast 215K): if they come in below 210K, the dollar will rise; if above 220K, the dollar will fall.
- Philadelphia Index: if it’s above forecast, the dollar will rise; if below, it will fall.
- Weak data could reduce the dollar to 97.50. Strong data could lead to a bounce back to 98.20-98.50.
Bitcoin Breaks 75k—An Important Signal
- The breakthrough of the psychological level at $75,000 is a strong signal for the bulls. The POC level for Bitcoin is at 74k. The next target is 76k, with support at 74k. The rise of cryptocurrency amid a weak dollar indicates a shift of investments from the dollar into riskier assets.
Gold and Oil
- Gold has risen to $4, 830 (+ 0.82$ 4,700—the trend remains strong. The next resistance level is $4, 850. B re n t o i l ha ss t abi l i ze d a t$ 92, with the POC at $91.5. I f p r i ces t a ys ab o v e t hi s l e v e l, i t co u l d b o u n ce u pt o$ 94; breaking below could lead to a drop to $89.

What Traders Are Watching Right Now

Many are seeing the breakthrough of Bitcoin and are starting to buy at current levels without waiting for the claims data, which is risky: strong data could strengthen the dollar, and Bitcoin may correct back to 74k. Others are buying gold at its peak, ignoring the resistance level at $4,850. Opening positions before key data is released is the riskiest strategy.

Scenarios and Trading Plan

Bearish Scenario (Decline): If the US data is weak and the CPI in the eurozone is strong (~55%). DXY target: 97.50. Sell if 97.80 breaks, stop loss above 98.00.
Consolidation Scenario: If data falls within expectations (~30%). Range: 97.80–98.20.
Bullish Scenario (Rise): If the US data is strong and the CPI in the eurozone is weak (~15%). DXY target: 98.20 → 98.50. Buy if price holds above 98.20, stop loss below 98.00.

Important: Wait 15 minutes after the data release to avoid false movements. Stop-loss orders are essential.

Рейтинг FOREX брокеров

Рекомендуемые брокеры