EURUSD:
EUR/USD is retreating on Thursday, October 30, 2025, after the Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 bps while signaling that further easing is not guaranteed. Guidance about a possible pause as early as December supported U.S. asset yields and strengthened the dollar, weighing on the euro. An additional supportive factor for USD is the Fed’s plan to end balance sheet runoff from December, which markets read as a cautious approach to maintaining financial conditions while keeping a lid on inflation.
For the euro, today’s ECB communication matters: the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged amid moderate loan demand and a gradual cooling in euro area inflation. This “wait-and-see” stance narrows the rate-expectations differential in favor of the dollar as long as the ECB has little reason to accelerate easing.
In the near term, the fundamental backdrop favors a stronger dollar: the Fed made clear that next steps depend on data, and ongoing U.S. uncertainty (including mixed labor-market signals) does not automatically translate into fresh cuts. That limits EURUSD upside and supports a sell-on-rallies strategy.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1635, SL 1.1675, TP 1.1560
Origin: FreshForex
