GBPUSD:
GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3160–1.3180 after a volatile reaction to the Fed’s decision and ahead of the Bank of England’s policy outlook. The Fed’s 0.25 pp cut briefly weighed on the dollar, but guidance highlighting uncertainty about future steps and still-firm U.S. yields helped the greenback stabilize. Sterling has been supported by recent domestic inflation and demand data, yet that impulse is fading as markets reassess the likelihood of BoE easing in the coming months amid cooling activity and an ongoing fiscal debate in the UK.
Recent UK headlines point to persistent pressure on real incomes and a cautious stance by the BoE: the probability of a rate cut within the next few meetings remains under discussion, which limits GBP’s appreciation potential. At the same time, the dollar benefits from global flows into defensive assets and comparatively higher U.S. real rates.
Given the yield differential and sterling’s sensitivity to domestic fiscal and price risks, the short-term bias in GBPUSD remains lower. Rebounds toward 1.3200–1.3220 look suitable for re-establishing short positions with a target near 1.3100.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3175, SL 1.3225, TP 1.3100
Origin: FreshForex
