EURUSD:
EUR/USD is trading around 1.1570–1.1580 after this week’s major central-bank decisions. On October 29, the Fed cut the policy rate by 0.25 pp while indicating that further easing in December is not guaranteed and announcing an end to balance-sheet reduction from December 1. This combination of a cautious tone and the halt to “tightening via the balance sheet” was largely priced in and failed to deliver durable support to risk currencies, while U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively elevated. That backdrop sustains demand for the dollar and caps euro rebounds.
For the euro, the lack of fresh stimulus from the ECB is a key factor: on October 30 the central bank left its rate unchanged, and recent surveys and business-activity indicators point to a gradual recovery rather than an acceleration strong enough to flip the rate differential with the U.S. in the euro’s favor. As a result, the near-term fundamental balance for the pair is tilted toward moderate downside.
Additional risks in global trade and tariff uncertainty support defensive demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation indicators (PCE) are broadly in line with expectations, keeping the debate alive about a pause after the Fed’s October move. Together these inputs favor a pullback in EURUSD from current levels.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1575, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1500
Origin: FreshForex
