USDJPY:
USD/JPY trades around 153.8–154.0 after the Bank of Japan’s October 30 meeting, where the central bank left its rate unchanged and signaled that an increase is possible later if wage and inflation dynamics are confirmed. The absence of immediate tightening weighed on the yen as the U.S.–Japan yield gap remains wide and JGB curves continue to be shaped by a cautious, gradual normalization path.
From the U.S. side, the Fed’s 0.25 pp rate cut did not eliminate the relative advantage of dollar assets: Treasury yields remain elevated, and careful guidance regarding December supports the dollar via expectations for real rates. In this configuration, equity-flow dynamics and Japanese investors’ hedging strategies (benefiting from swap carry) work against the yen.
Another factor is Japan’s external trade and sensitivity to energy imports: a weaker yen currently helps exporters but raises import prices, which tempers the BoJ’s resolve to move quickly. Altogether this supports a scenario of a gradual push to fresh local highs in USDJPY.
Trading recommendation: BUY 153.80, SL 153.15, TP 154.50
Origin: FreshForex
