OPEC+ Eases Cuts, But Market Doesn’t Break
OPEC+ continues to quietly increase production, clawing back barrels without rattling prices too much. While the group hasn’t made aggressive moves, supply has been drifting higher over recent weeks, weighing slightly on sentiment. Traders are also squaring up ahead of the September 7 meeting, though early signals suggest no major quota changes. With seasonal demand waning, this steady return of OPEC+ supply is starting to tip the balance.
Russia’s Crude Still Flowing, But Risks Linger
Russian crude exports picked back up after brief disruptions. The Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Hungary and Slovakia, resumed service following a Ukrainian drone strike. At the same time, Moscow boosted its August exports from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day, a move that softened some of the geopolitical premium built into the market. Even so, Russian infrastructure remains in the crosshairs, and traders haven’t dismissed the risk of fresh outages.
U.S. Crude Inventory Draws Offer Temporary Support
The latest U.S. inventory data showed a 2.4 million barrel draw, stronger than the expected 1.9 million. That helped briefly lift prices midweek. But with the summer driving season wrapping up, gasoline demand is underwhelming and traders aren’t treating the draw as the start of a sustained trend. Freight and industrial demand still look steady, but not strong enough to push the tape on their own.
Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures
The 52-week moving average at $63.35 is the most important line in the sand. Crude has now held above it for two straight weeks, and as long as that holds, the tone stays neutral-to-constructive. But if it breaks below $63.35, and especially under $63.31, it opens the door to $61.12 and $60.26.
On the upside, the key barrier remains $64.56—only a firm weekly close above that would trigger a push toward $65.41 and possibly $68.70. The major top to beat is still $69.69, but we’re not going there without help from either geopolitics or OPEC. Until then, rangebound with a tilt—watch that 52-week moving average.
