Euro at 1.1468: CPI to Decide Its Fate
The euro is holding steady at 1.14680, as if on the edge of a knife. Today at 12:00 PM MSK, the main trigger will be released — the preliminary CPI for the Eurozone for March. Forecast: acceleration to 2.1% YoY from 2.0%. If the figures come in higher than expected, the euro could gain hope for a bounce to 1.1500–1.1520. On the other hand, if inflation disappoints (below 2.0%), the pair could drop below 1.1460 and plunge towards 1.1415–1.1400. Brent crude oil continues to weigh on Europe, remaining above $106, and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz offer no relief. Under these conditions, any attempts at a euro rally will feel like a gasp of air before diving.
Key Levels for EUR/USD on March 31
Current Price – 1.14680 (consolidation at the lows)
Nearest Resistance – 1.1490–1.1500 (POC) / 1.1520 (bounce zones)
Key Support – 1.1460 (local minimum)
Next Support – 1.1415 / 1.1400 (annual minimums)
VAH – 1.1500 (upper boundary of yesterday’s value area)
VAL – 1.1460 (lower boundary of yesterday’s value area)
What to Expect Today
Eurozone CPI (12:00 PM MSK)
Forecast: +2.1% YoY (previously 2.0%), core CPI is expected at 2.5% YoY. If the actual figures match or exceed the forecast, the euro could bounce to 1.1490–1.1520. If the data comes in below 2.0%, it will signal strong bearish sentiment: markets will start to price in an earlier rate cut from the ECB, and the pair will break below 1.1460 towards 1.1415–1.1400.
US Data (4:00 PM–5:00 PM MSK)
JOLTS (February): forecast 6.95 million. An increase in job vacancies (above 7 million) will strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the euro. CB Consumer Confidence: forecast 98.5. Stable figures will support the dollar. Strong data from the US will enhance the bearish trend for the euro, while weak data will provide the pair a chance for a correction.
Geopolitics and Oil
Brent crude oil above $106 remains the primary external factor pressuring the euro. Any new escalation in the Middle East could push oil prices up to $110–115, which would hit the euro harder than the dollar. Reports of potential negotiations, on the other hand, could lower oil prices and give the euro some breathing room.
What Traders Are Targeting Right Now
Many traders see the euro languishing at 1.1468 and are preparing to sell without waiting for the numbers. However, the market often tends to whipsaw before important data: it may first spike upward, triggering short positions, before moving lower. Others are trying to buy the bounce, hoping that 1.1460 will hold — but without a consolidation above 1.1500, it’s a game of chance.
Scenarios and Trading Plan Based on Market Profile
Bearish (decline): Eurozone CPI at 7 million, stable oil prices. Probability ~65%. Target for EUR/USD: break below 1.1460 → 1.1415 → 1.1400.
Bullish (bounce): CPI >2.2%, weak data from the US, falling oil prices. Probability ~35%. Target for EUR/USD: bounce to 1.1490–1.1500, break → 1.1520.
Conclusions
Today’s Eurozone CPI is the last chance for the euro this week. Weak data combined with a strong JOLTS report will drive the pair to 1.1415–1.1400. Strong CPI and weak US data could push the euro to 1.1490–1.1520. The key thresholds are 1.1500 above, and 1.1460 below. As long as oil remains above $100, the bearish trend persists, and any rallies will merely be corrections.
