EURUSD:
EUR/USD is supported by expectations ahead of this week’s FOMC decision: fresh September inflation data in the United States came in moderate, reinforcing the scenario of rate cuts and a softer dollar as price pressures normalize. At the same time, the euro area’s central bank communication remains cautious but without signs of emergency tightening, which eases pressure on business activity and supports risk appetite.
Demand for the euro is also strengthened by improved global risk sentiment and stable U.S. Treasury yields: growing interest in equities and commodities typically reduces the need for the dollar as a defensive asset. This week, markets focus on the Fed’s comments about the policy path into year-end and early 2026: a gentler tone increases the probability of a weaker dollar and continued EURUSD upside.
For the short-term fundamental setup, it is notable that U.S. risks (slowing inflation, debate over fiscal constraints) weigh on yields, while Europe faces no new energy-price shocks. In this configuration, the balance of factors tilts toward moderate euro appreciation against the dollar unless the Fed signals a stricter stance on rates and balance sheet.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1665, SL 1.1635, TP 1.1710
Origin: FreshForex
