EURUSD:
The euro is declining against the US dollar amid persistent demand for safe-haven assets and expectations for US inflation data. Investors note that delays in the release of official US macroeconomic data caused by the government shutdown do not resolve the question of the price trajectory: the market is still repricing the timing and scale of monetary easing in the US, which supports the USD. Taken together, this keeps the pair around 1.16 and caps attempts to rise.
Additional pressure on the euro comes from uneven signals from the euro area’s real sector and the regulator’s cautious tone on growth prospects, while US Treasury yields remain relatively high. In the short term, the risk balance for EURUSD is tilted toward further declines, especially in the absence of positive surprises in US price dynamics and signs of acceleration in the eurozone economy.
In October the euro’s vulnerability to deteriorating global risk sentiment and US news flow was also evident. As of today this remains relevant: the dollar retains an advantage thanks to expectations around Federal Reserve rates and its role as a funding currency, while the euro is exposed to the region’s political-economic risks. Given these inputs, a strategy of selling from round levels looks justified.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1605, SL 1.1625, TP 1.1545
Origin: FreshForex
