EURUSD:
The euro is supported on Wednesday, 15 October 2025, as the US dollar softens following remarks by the Federal Reserve Chair about carefully assessing the economy amid limited statistical releases. Markets have reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut by the end of the month, which reduces the dollar’s appeal relative to currencies with a more neutral policy horizon. Adding to the backdrop are ongoing US–China trade frictions that weigh on risk sentiment and favor currencies sensitive to broad dollar dynamics.
For the euro area, stable signals from the ECB about readiness to keep market conditions orderly during bouts of yield volatility help compress risk premia in the euro. At the policy level, European officials’ emphasis on the stability of the sovereign debt market and the availability of policy tools lowers perceived risk. Macro expectations are moderate: growth is maintained by fiscal support despite the drag from US tariffs on external demand, limiting pressure on the euro from the real economy.
In the near term, the balance of factors favors a gradual strengthening of the euro: expectations of easier US policy, partial “blackout” of some US data due to budget delays, and the ECB’s confidence in financial conditions. Also supportive is an improvement in risk appetite across Asian markets, where participants see a higher likelihood of measured decisions by major central banks toward month-end.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1575, TP 1.1675
Origin: FreshForex
