EURUSD:
The euro remains above 1.17 thanks to the weakening of the dollar after a series of US data that reinforced expectations of a Fed rate cut at its September 16-17 meeting. Moderate inflation dynamics in components important for PCE and a surge in unemployment benefit claims weakened the dollar index and reduced the yield premium in the US, which supports demand for the euro and other risk assets.
An additional positive factor is the neutral-cautious signal from the ECB: the regulator kept rates unchanged and indicated a “balanced” view of the growth/inflation outlook. This reduces the likelihood of accelerated easing in the eurozone and, consequently, reduces pressure on the euro from the interest rate differential. At the same time, trade risks and tariff uncertainty remain in focus, but so far do not interfere with the moderate strengthening of the single currency.
Taking all factors into account, the baseline scenario for the current session is to buy EURUSD while controlling risks. Levels are set in multiples of 5 points: BUY entry at 1.1725, protective stop SL at 1.1695 in case of a reversal in dollar sentiment, target TP at 1.1785 — based on expectations of a soft Fed decision and continued ECB rhetoric.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1725, SL 1.1695, TP 1.1785
