AUD/USD: Key Scenarios to Watch
Bearish AUD/USD Scenario: Dovish RBA guidance and cooling inflation. These factors could push AUD/USD below the $0.64 support level, potentially exposing the $0.63623 support level.
Bullish AUD/USD Scenario: Hawkish RBA signals and sticky inflation. These factors could drive AUD/USD toward the 200-day EMA, bringing the 50-day EMA into sight.
While economists are betting on a November RBA rate cut, uncertainty lingers about the Fed’s policy outlook. Fed Chair Powell’s support for a September Fed rate cut and further policy easing would narrow the US-Aussie interest rate differential. A narrower rate differential could send AUD/USD toward $0.6450, bringing the 200-day EMA into view.
On the other hand, the pair could drop below $0.64, exposing the $0.63623 support level if Powell raises concerns about upside risks to inflation.
