GBPUSD:
Sterling stays under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens ahead of the July 30, 2025 Fed announcement and as global markets remain cautious. Domestically, the UK backdrop features sensitivity to softer consumer activity and a cooling labor market, alongside debates over the budget path and higher sovereign borrowing—factors that lift the risk premium. This mix raises the likelihood that the Bank of England will keep a balanced tone without strong hawkish signals, limiting support for GBP.
The external context is also unfavorable for the pound: the Dollar benefits from safe‑haven flows and the US economy’s relative advantage over the coming quarters. In such conditions, trade and capital flows tend to favor the USD, and GBP is often used as a funding leg “into the Dollar” until the Fed’s tone becomes clearer.
The main near‑term risk to the bearish scenario would be a markedly more dovish Fed that drags US yields lower and softens the DXY, as well as stronger UK price/wage data that increase the odds of the BoE maintaining restrictive policy for longer. For now, the fundamental balance is skewed lower for GBPUSD.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3355, SL 1.3400, TP 1.3300
Origin: FreshForex
