USDJPY:
The yen remains under pressure as hopes for imminent Bank of Japan tightening fade: June’s trade‑balance surplus missed forecasts and Tokyo inflation slowed to 3.3 %, softening hawkish sentiment. Consequently, the 10‑year JGB yield has slipped below 1.1 %, stretching its gap with the US benchmark to almost 340 bp.
The dollar, by contrast, drew support from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the need to keep policy “restrictive for longer” to counter the impact of new tariffs. Dollar demand is further buoyed by risk aversion amid uncertainty over US‑China trade negotiations.
With risk appetite subdued and domestic Japanese drivers weak (delayed tax incentives, a stagnant real‑sector outlook), USDJPY is likely to keep grinding toward the upper end of July’s 148.50–149.00 range.
Trade recommendation: BUY 147.00, SL 146.50, TP 148.50
Origin: FreshForex
