GBPUSD:
Sterling drifts toward 1.3410 as the market almost fully prices a Bank of England rate cut on 7 August. Odds of easier policy rose after unemployment climbed to 4.7 % and wage growth slowed to 5.0 %, pointing to a cooling labour market and heightening fears of a hard landing for the UK economy.
Soft domestic data compound the pressure: GDP has contracted for two consecutive months, and industrial output is struggling with supply‑chain friction as tariff disputes ripple through global trade. With gilts offering lower yields relative to US Treasuries, international investors have little incentive to hold the pound, turning any uptick in GBPUSD into a selling window for bears.
The dollar, meanwhile, enjoys steady haven demand amid escalating trade tensions and a Federal Reserve that remains cautious but not yet dovish. Unless incoming US data radically soften, the pair is likely to probe the 1.3350 support area in the days ahead, with rebounds toward 1.3450 viewed as corrective.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3415, SL 1.3450, TP 1.3350
Origin: FreshForex
