EURUSD:
The single currency remains on the defensive at 1.1620 – 1.1630, weighed by Washington’s confirmation that 30 % tariffs on most EU goods will take effect on 1 August if new market‑access concessions are not secured. The threat lifts demand for the dollar as a “safe” reserve asset, encouraging portfolio flows back into US Treasuries and away from euro‑denominated holdings.
Pressure on the euro is reinforced by the European Central Bank’s recent 25 bp rate cut and its downward revision of 2025‑2026 inflation projections. While the ECB signals readiness to ease further if price growth stays subdued, the Federal Reserve is only debating a first rate cut for the autumn. The resulting policy divergence keeps the dollar’s yield advantage intact and curbs any meaningful euro rebound.
Investors are also focused on June US CPI (consensus: 2.7 % y/y). A hotter‑than‑expected number would argue against rapid Fed easing and could extend the greenback’s support. In these circumstances, attempts to lift EURUSD above 1.1650 are likely to be treated as fresh selling opportunities rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1625, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1575
Origin: FreshForex
