USD/JPY Daily Outlook: PMIs and the Fed in Focus
Later in the US session, US private sector PMI data also requires consideration. Given the services sector contributes around 80% to the US GDP, the S&P Global Services PMI will be the focal point. Economists forecast the Services PMI to fall from 54.4 in March to 52.8 in April.
A weaker-than-expected PMI may revive US recession fears, supporting a more dovish Fed stance. In this scenario, the USD/JPY pair may drop toward 140. Conversely, an unexpected pickup in services sector activity may sink bets on a June Fed rate cut, potentially sending the pair toward 145.
Beyond the data, Fed commentary and tariff-related news will also influence USD/JPY trends.
Potential USD/JPY Moves:
Bullish US dollar Scenario: Easing trade tensions, upbeat US services sector data, or hawkish Fed rhetoric could drive USD/JPY toward 145.
Bearish US dollar Scenario: Renewed tariff threats, a weaker US Services PMI, or dovish Fed commentary may push the pair toward the 140.309 support level.
