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Shifting focus to the Aussie, economic data from China, trade developments, and policy signals from Beijing will dictate AUD/USD trends.
Rising trade tensions could weaken US dollar assets, lifting the AUD/USD, mirroring last week’s recovery from $0.59132. However, China’s trade data could be key. Economists forecast exports to increase 4.4% year-on-year in March, following a 2.3% rise in February.
Higher exports could signal an improving demand environment. But traders will watch for signs of tariff front-running, shipments rushed ahead of tariff hikes, limiting the impact on risk sentiment. A softer-than-expected reading may fuel fears that US tariffs are already curbing demand.
AUD/USD: What Could Move the Market
Bullish Aussie dollar Scenario: Heightened US-China trade tensions or hawkish RBA commentary may send the AUD/USD pair toward the $0.63623 resistance level.
Bearish Aussie dollar Scenario: De-escalation in trade friction may boost demand for US dollar assets, potentially pulling the AUD/USD pair below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and toward $0.62.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: US Inflation Takes the Stage
In the US session, higher inflation expectations signal a more hawkish Fed stance, potentially pushing the AUD/USD pair below the 50-day EMA toward $0.62. Conversely, softer data may boost Fed rate cut bets, driving the pair toward the $0.63623 resistance level.
