Focus shifts to the Aussie as China’s economy, trade updates, and stimulus developments from China will drive AUD/USD trends. Economists forecast China’s economy to grow 5.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, down from 5.4% in Q4 2024.
A weaker-than-expected reading could impact risk assets, including commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie dollar. With China accounting for roughly a third of Australian exports—and a trade-to-GDP ratio above 50%—weaker growth could pressure Australia’s economy and support a dovish RBA stance.
Conversely, upbeat data would suggest a resilient demand environment, boosting Aussie dollar demand. Alongside GDP data, China’s retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment for March will give insights into the economic momentum going into Q2 2025.
Aussie Dollar Daily Outlook: Retail Sales Spotlight the US Economy
In the US session, stronger retail sales could ease Fed rate cut bets and weigh on AUD/USD, potentially dragging the AUD/USD pair below the 50-day EMA toward $0.62. However, a softer print may fuel Fed rate cut bets, sending the pair above the $0.63623 resistance level to test the 200-day EMA.
