On Friday, March 7, China’s trade data will be a key driver for the AUD/USD pair. Economists forecast China’s exports to rise 5% year-on-year in February after surging 10.7% in January.
A lower-than-expected reading could signal waning demand ahead of Trump’s Executive Order, which raised tariffs on China to 20% in March. Conversely, a higher export print may reinforce confidence in China’s economic outlook, supporting the Aussie economy and the Aussie dollar.
Since China accounts for one-third of Australia’s exports and trade contributes over 50% to Australia’s GDP, AUD/USD is highly sensitive to these figures.
A strong trade report could push AUD/USD above the $0.63623 resistance level, targeting $0.64.
A weak report may send AUD/USD toward the 50-day EMA and the crucial $0.63 support level.
Australian Dollar Daily Chart
Later in the US session, a stronger-than-expected US Jobs Report could curb June Fed rate cut bets. A more hawkish Fed stance could widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential, favoring the US dollar. Under this scenario, the AUD/USD pair may drop to the 50-day EMA and the $0.63 level.
Conversely, weaker labor market data could signal expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts. A more dovish Fed rate path may narrow the rate differential, potentially driving the AUD/USD pair toward $0.64 and the 200-day EMA.
