Aussie GDP numbers, on March 5, will influence the AUD/USD pair’s trajectory and RBA policy expectations. Economists forecast the economy to expand by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading could temper bets on a second RBA rate cut, potentially driving the AUD/USD pair toward $0.63 and the 50-day EMA.
Conversely, weaker growth figures may boost expectations for an H1 2025 RBA rate cut. A more dovish RBA stance may drag the AUD/USD pair toward $0.62.
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Australian Dollar Daily Chart
In the US session, strong US economic data could sink bets on a June Fed rate cut. A more hawkish Fed would widen the US-Aussie interest rate differential, favoring the US dollar. A wider rate differential could send the AUD/USD pair toward $0.62, a crucial support level in recent sessions.
Conversely, a US service sector contraction and slump in employment could fuel expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts. A dovish Fed rate path would narrow the rate differential, driving the AUD/USD pair toward $0.63 and the 50-day EMA.
