EURUSD:
The euro is under pressure due to a mix of domestic political risks in Europe and stronger demand for the US dollar amid global uncertainty. Investors remain cautious: disruptions to US macro releases caused by the government shutdown have increased the appeal of the dollar’s safe, liquid profile. At the same time, markets still expect further Federal Reserve easing later this month, but data delays and a nervous tone support short-term USD demand.
On the Eurozone side, the picture is uneven. Political headlines from France are widening the risk premium in euro pairs, showing up as euro weakness after several failed rebounds. On monetary policy, the ECB signals a pause after the summer rate cut and is monitoring inflation dynamics without rushing into another step, which limits upside for the euro against a soft growth backdrop.
The combination of stronger USD demand and European risks keeps a fundamentally downward bias for the pair over the next sessions. There are no meaningful anchors in the EU data calendar that could flip sentiment, while dollar-positive flows remain persistent.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1645, SL 1.1695, TP 1.1550
Origin: FreshForex
