EURUSD:
EUR/USD trades around 1.1720–1.1730 early Friday. The market is digesting the continuation of the U.S. federal agencies’ shutdown, which delays official macro data releases. Private labor-market gauges for September point to slower hiring, yet overall demand for the dollar remains supported: investors retain interest in the U.S. currency amid uncertainty over the budget and the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate cut. In this mix of factors, the euro is losing upside momentum and short-lived rallies tend to fade.
In the euro area, participants track consumer prices and activity estimates—soft inflation and business readings offer little reason to expect faster GDP growth in the autumn. Against this backdrop, the scope for euro appreciation looks limited: the U.S.–Germany yield gap remains notable, while the ECB’s communication is cautious regarding further policy loosening, with the central bank preferring to wait for a steady cooling in prices without undermining demand.
On the U.S. side, rate expectations are the key lever: futures price in a chance of a cut already in October and a continued path toward looser policy by year-end. However, the lack of official publications during the budget pause shifts attention to alternative indicators and Fed commentary, which together support defensive demand for the dollar and keep EURUSD below recent September highs.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1725, SL 1.1755, TP 1.1660
Origin: FreshForex
