EUR/USD on Monday, September 15, holds near 1.1730 into a “central bank week.” The market is largely pricing a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday, September 17, with the updated dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone set to be decisive for the dollar. A temporary bid for safe havens and cautious positioning ahead of the meeting supports USD and caps the euro’s upside.
For the euro, European risk factors add weight: France’s weakened credit profile and a still-fragile regional recovery. The ECB is expected to stay on hold, focusing on the inflation path and growth risks. The contrast with a Fed that investors see normalizing faster tilts near-term risks in favor of the dollar.
Bottom line: the short-term fundamental backdrop looks moderately bearish for EUR/USD. We prefer selling from 1.1735 targeting 1.1685. Risk scenario — if the Fed cuts by 50 bps and/or signals a softer path ahead, the dollar may weaken and the pair could accelerate higher; the stop at 1.1765 limits drawdown.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1735, SL 1.1765, TP 1.1685
Origin: FreshForex
