EURUSD:
EUR/USD remains under pressure amid a stronger US dollar and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s next steps. After the October rate cut, the Fed signaled that further decisions will be data-dependent, while comments from individual Committee members point to diverging views—this sustains demand for the dollar as the default currency when market uncertainty rises. A firm US Dollar Index around 100 is capping euro rebounds, with investment flows favoring US safe-haven assets amid swings in global markets.
In the euro area, the ECB kept rates unchanged at its 30 October meeting (deposit rate at 2.00%), noting inflation is moving closer to target and the economy is showing resilience. Even so, growth prospects remain moderate, particularly due to external trade risks and a turbulent global backdrop. The absence of strong signals for imminent easing in Europe, combined with relatively more attractive yields on US assets, continues to restrain demand for the euro.
Adding to the backdrop, US data are mixed (the labor market is cooling unevenly, services hold up better than manufacturing) while equity market volatility persists. In this setting, market participants prefer caution, which reinforces the tilt toward dollar assets and raises the likelihood of EUR/USD drifting lower over the next sessions in the absence of positive surprises from European statistics.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1505, SL 1.1535, TP 1.1450
Origin: FreshForex
