EURUSD:
The euro is trading near recent multi-week lows as demand for the US dollar is supported by the upcoming US releases on employment and business activity in the next few days, as well as Federal Reserve signals of a more cautious easing trajectory after the October rate cut. Markets now price a lower probability of an additional move in December, which strengthens the dollar and caps the single currency’s recovery.
Safe-haven interest in dollar assets is also reinforced by headlines about progress in US–China trade dialogue, which reduced tariff-escalation risks and helped steady US yields. Against this backdrop, the euro remains vulnerable given uneven growth in the euro area and a gradual drift lower in inflation expectations.
Softer signals from the European Central Bank regarding the inflation outlook for 2025–2026 add to the pressure. Taken together, these drivers support a scenario of moderate EURUSD decline, with volatility around US macro releases and policymakers’ comments.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1535, SL 1.1565, TP 1.1485
Origin: FreshForex
