USDJPY:
The pair holds around 152.0–153.0, remaining sensitive to U.S. yields into the Fed announcement. An expected 25 bps cut, coupled with close scrutiny of forward guidance, could modestly pressure Treasury yields and the dollar against the yen.
On the Japanese side, the backdrop features lingering expectations of gradual policy normalization by the Bank of Japan over the coming months and frequent verbal interventions from the authorities. These factors have tended to cap accelerations of USDJPY near round figures. While the pair has been described as near multi-month highs this week, there are growing signs of trend fatigue into the 153.0 area.
Given the risk of a more accommodative outcome from the Fed and the likelihood of firmer commentary from Japan on yen volatility, there is room for a corrective move toward 151.00. The call rests on fundamentals—rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan and the policy news flow from the Fed and the BoJ.
Trade recommendation: SELL 152.10, SL 152.30, TP 151.30
Origin: FreshForex
