USDJPY:
The yen receives fundamental support through two channels: expectations of a Fed rate cut today reduce the yield differential in favor of USD, while the consensus on BoJ temporarily holding policy with the possibility of resuming a rate hike in Q4 boosts potential yen premium as the meeting approaches. At its last meeting, the BoJ kept rates unchanged but raised inflation forecasts and left the door open for further normalization, which, amid steady wage growth and imported inflation due to a weak yen, supports a medium‑term JPY strengthening scenario.
Authorities and former currency officials point to risks of accelerating inflation due to prolonged yen weakness, increasing sensitivity to USDJPY levels and the likelihood of more hawkish communication or targeted measures if the yen weakens beyond the comfort zone. Current spot levels near 146.4–146.5 on 17.09 are confirmed by historical series and quote aggregators, aligning entry and risk parameters with real prices and the fundamental picture of «easing Fed — cautious but less accommodative BoJ».
An additional factor is the dollar’s decline against a broad set of currencies ahead of the Fed decision, reducing the likelihood of aggressive USDJPY growth without a shift in BoJ rhetoric or surprises from the Fed.
Trade recommendation: SELL 146.50, SL 146.70, TP 145.50
Origin: FreshForex
