EURUSD:
EUR/USD is soft in the 1.16–1.17 area as demand for the “defensive” US dollar is supported by political risks in the euro area (uncertainty around a confidence vote in France) and a steady bid for USD liquidity ahead of upcoming US data. The eurozone news flow lacks durable growth drivers, while headlines about budget risks and domestic frictions keep investors from adding to long EUR exposure.
The US remains the focal point: markets are assessing the path of potential Fed easing into the autumn while balancing risks to employment and inflation. Repeated “data-dependent” signals from Fed officials support the dollar through yields and a liquidity premium, especially against a backdrop of global uncertainty and cautious risk positioning.
On balance, fundamentals still weigh on the euro: the US–EU yield premium and dollar-positive flows outweigh local EUR rebounds. Our base case favors selling into strength with an eye on a return toward the mid-1.15s if US releases come in neutral.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.1645, SL 1.1695, TP 1.1585
Origin: FreshForex
