USDJPY:
Following dovish-leaning Fed rhetoric, demand for the dollar has eased and U.S. yields have retreated, reducing support for USDJPY. The pair has pulled back from recent highs as markets price a September Fed cut, narrowing the U.S.–Japan yield spread and making long USD positions against the yen less compelling.
Japan’s recent macro data in August has been more resilient than expected, and the Bank of Japan continues a cautious normalization with an emphasis on wages and sustained inflation at target. Against this backdrop, a modest domestic impulse in Japan and lower U.S. yields support the yen. Another factor is the market’s sensitivity to potential verbal interventions from Japan’s Ministry of Finance if the yen were to weaken again.
Near-term, risks for USDJPY are skewed lower: a softer Fed, steadier Japanese data, and the authorities’ intervention risk management create a fundamental case for the pair to decline. Barring a renewed jump in U.S. yields, the probability of further yen strength remains elevated.
Trading recommendation: SELL 147.25, SL 147.95, TP 146.50
Origin: FreshForex
