EURUSD:
The pair remains under pressure from the US‑EU trade dispute: Washington’s 30 % duties on European imports are driving investors into dollar‑denominated assets and eroding confidence in Eurozone export prospects. Robust US business‑activity data have kept 10‑year Treasury yields near 4.45 %, while in Europe traders continue to price in another ECB rate cut for Q3 2025.
In the near term, the euro also lacks support from inflation expectations: the latest ECB projections point to consumer‑price growth slowing to 2 % by 2026, diminishing the appeal of European bonds. At the same time, markets now anticipate the Fed’s first rate cut only in the autumn, widening the yield differential in the dollar’s favour.
Finally, rising geopolitical tension—an “eye‑for‑an‑eye” tariff rhetoric—boosts demand for the reserve currency and casts doubt on the EU’s ability to maintain a positive trade balance in H2. Against this fundamental backdrop, selling EURUSD from current levels appears justified.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1745, SL 1.1785, TP 1.1695
Origin: FreshForex
