EURUSD:
EUR/USD is correcting to levels below 1.1600, forming a bearish scenario amid escalating trade tensions between the US and EU. Plans to introduce a 30% tariff on imports from Europe starting August 1, along with retaliatory measures from the European Commission, are fueling demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Key Pressure Factors:
Monetary Policy: The ECB continues to ease rates, reducing the appeal of the euro. Inflation forecasts for 2025–2026 have been revised downward, reinforcing expectations of continued low rates in the euro area.
Yields: US 10-year Treasury yields hold near 4.46%, maintaining a stable differential in favor of the dollar.
Economic Data: Weak industrial production figures in the EU heighten concerns about slowing economic growth.
A break below 1.1600 may trigger further declines toward 1.1500, while support at 1.1620 remains a key barrier for the bearish scenario.
Trade Recommendation: SELL 1.1600, SL 1.1620, TP 1.1500
Origin: FreshForex
